On this special edition of Miles to Go, I sat down with my longtime friend and fellow pilot, Lars Perkins, to break down the latest findings from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) on the recent midair collision over the Potomac River. The NTSB briefing shed light on some key factors in the crash, but as Lars and I discussed, the real issue may not be the technical details—it’s a larger, systemic problem in aviation safety.
Altimeter Discrepancy: A Distraction from the Real Problem?
One of the first things that came up in the NTSB briefing was an apparent discrepancy in the altimeter readings between the two pilots—one undergoing a check ride and the other an instructor. They seemed to disagree on whether they were at 300 or 400 feet.
That’s an interesting detail, but I think it’s a red herring. This was a flight conducted under visual flight rules (VFR)—which means the pilots were responsible for looking outside and avoiding other traffic. When flying VFR, it doesn’t matter what the instruments say about your altitude if you’re not seeing and avoiding other aircraft.
See-and-Avoid: A System with No Margin for Error
Lars made an important point about the distinction between instrument flight rules (IFR) and VFR. Under IFR, air traffic control (ATC) keeps aircraft separated. But under VFR, it’s up to the pilots to spot each other and maintain separation.
That system works well when visibility is perfect and the skies are empty. But in congested airspace like the area around Reagan National Airport (DCA), the margin for error is razor-thin. Unlike Boston or New York, where helicopter corridors are more separated from fixed-wing traffic, DCA has helicopters flying directly underneath an airliner’s approach path. That’s just not a great setup. And, as I said in our conversation, it felt like an accident waiting to happen.
Night Vision Goggles: Help or Hindrance?
Another factor in the crash was the use of night vision goggles (NVGs). I’ve flown with NVGs myself, and while they do an amazing job of amplifying available light, they also create serious limitations:
Tunnel vision – Looking through NVGs is like peering through toilet paper tubes. Your peripheral vision is gone, which means an aircraft outside that narrow field of view could go unseen.
City lights – When flying over a brightly lit area, NVGs can actually blind you instead of helping. The contrast can be overwhelming.
It’s possible that the helicopter pilot thought they had the airliner in sight but were actually focused on a different aircraft or even a light on the ground. Lars and I both know how easy it is to fixate on the wrong target at night.
The Normalization of Deviance: How Near Misses Lead to Tragedy
This crash reminded me of a concept I first read about in Diane Vaughan’s book on the Challenger disaster: the normalization of deviance. The idea is that when a system has a bunch of close calls without a disaster, people start assuming it must be safe—when in reality, they’re just getting lucky.
For 50 years, helicopters and airliners have been passing dangerously close to each other at DCA without an accident. That doesn’t mean the system was safe—it means we were playing the odds. And, tragically, this time the odds caught up with us.
The NTSB and the Politics of Safety
I was relieved to see the NTSB conducting its investigation with the kind of methodical, fact-based approach they’re known for. After former President Donald Trump injected himself into the conversation, I worried that politics might taint the investigation. But so far, at least in this briefing, the NTSB has stuck to the facts.
Their next step is to reconstruct what the pilots saw (or didn’t see) that night, which will give us more insight into what went wrong.
Lessons from the Crash
This accident raises a lot of questions:
Should we rethink helicopter flight paths near major airports?
Are NVGs the right tool for urban night flying?
Does the “see-and-avoid” system work in today’s congested airspace?
These are the kinds of conversations we need to have before another tragedy happens. Lars and I will be keeping an eye on the NTSB’s findings, and I’ll share updates here as they come in.
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